Sep 11, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jesœs Luzardo (44) reacts with teammates in the dugout after pitching out of the eighth inning against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images Bill Streicher
The Phillies and Jesús Luzardo avoided arbitration Thursday, with Ari Alexander of 7 News in Boston reporting it's an $11 million agreement for his final year of before free agency.
One of the storylines surrounding the Phillies when pitchers and catchers first work out at Spring Training on Feb. 11 will certainly be whether Dave Dombrowski and company try to reach an extension with the southpaw before his contract year.
First of all, it should be noted that things appear to be fluid with the Phillies financially. As it stands now, the Phillies will have quite a bit of flexibility next offseason, with just Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker accounting for $38 million in expiring contracts. But, the Phillies are reportedly meeting with Bo Bichette Monday, and if they give him a megadeal where he's making $30 million a season, give or take, it will obviously change the long-term financial outlook.
Secondly, it is fair to ask if it makes sense for Luzardo to consider an extension. He's a 28-year-old lefty coming off of a seventh-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting, and it still feels like there might be a little meat on the bone. Luzardo is a client of Dan Lozano of MVP Sports Group, and many agents like their clients to test free agency, where leverage is maximized by having multiple teams bidding on you. If Luzardo matches or exceeds his 2025 campaign — in which he posted a 3.92 ERA and 2.90 FIP across 183 2/3 innings — he will likely be looking at a six or seven-year deal in free agency given that he'll be on the right side of 30.
With that said, Luzardo's injury history might make him at least willing to listen. While he had a clean bill of health in 2025, left elbow tightness and a lumbar stress reaction limited him to only 66 2/3 innings in 2024, his final season with the Miami Marlins. He had two stints on the injured list with a left forearm strain in 2022. He underwent Tommy John surgery nearly a decade ago in March of 2016. If Luzardo has another great season, he'll be one of the top-five free agents in next year's class. But his value could plummet if he has a major injury in 2026.
Even if Luzardo is healthy in 2026, his injury history could work against him in free agency. Before he was traded to the Phillies, Luzardo was set to be dealt to the Cubs, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says Chicago "backed out after a review of his medical records," raising red flags about both his back and left elbow. Will other possible suitors have concerns about Luzardo's injury history and ability to hold up? When you're talking about giving a deal of five years or longer and surrendering draft-pick compensation since Luzardo will almost certainly have a qualifying offer attached to him, these are things that will be considered.
So if the Phillies were to offer Luzardo a five-year extension — one that would kick in beginning in 2027 — that would seem to be something he should at least listen on. The Phillies aren't going to offer six or seven years to Luzardo almost a year before he can become a free agent, but five years (six, if you consider the $11 million he's making in 2026) would offer him pretty good long-term security.
As far as average annual value, Garrett Crochet of the Boston Red Sox and Tyler Glasnow of the Los Angeles Dodgers — who are currently seventh and eighth in AAV among starting pitchers — could offer interesting reference points because both got their deals after being traded and without testing free agency. Crochet has a $28.3 million AAV over six years, while Glasnow has a $27.3 million AAV over a five-year deal. Luzardo isn't Crochet. But for as amazing as Glasnow is when healthy, he's never pitched more than 135 innings in a season. It's not unreasonable to think that Luzardo could land at a number somewhere in between Crochet and Glasnow, like an even $28 million.
An AAV of $28 million over five years would mean the Phillies would be offering Luzardo a five-year/$140 million deal. Surely, there would be risk in offering that to Luzardo, because he could get hurt in April, and that would obviously make the Phillies wish they had just let his contract year play out. The flip side, though, is you have to offer a player a lucrative deal to get him to give up his right to test free agency, and this would be that. If Luzardo plays out his contract year and is healthy, he's probably going to be targeting a much larger deal than five years and $140 million.
In his end-of-season press conference back in October, Dombrowski was asked about potentially trying to extend Luzardo before his contract year.
"Well we haven't talked about that as of yet, but I'd love to have Jesús Luzardo be part of our organization for years to come. He's a really good pitcher," Dombrowski said.
"But we haven't tackled that as of yet. But he's a guy that we really like."
