Aug 18, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Ranger Su‡rez (55) in the dugout after coming out of the game during the seventh inning against the Seattle Mariners at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images Eric Hartline
Dave Dombrowski spoke for nearly an hour in his year-end press conference last Thursday, and wasn't asked once whether the Phillies will extend qualifying offers to Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suárez.
That's because it's a certainty that the Phillies will extend the one-year/$22.02 million qualifying offer to both. It's also a certainty that each will reject it, and test free agency.
It should be noted that just because Schwarber and Suárez reject the qualifying offer doesn't mean they can't ultimately return to the Phillies. In fact, the Phillies would be the only team who wouldn't have to give up draft-pick compensation to sign either once they turn down the QO. J.T. Realmuto rejected the qualifying offer after the 2020 season and returned to the Phillies after testing free agency. Aaron Nola did the same following the 2023 campaign.
Realmuto is a free agent again this offseason, but ineligible to receive the QO because you can only be saddled with it once in your career. Harrison Bader also can't get a QO because he was traded during the season.
But Schwarber and Suárez will each be among the 10 most notable free agents this winter, meaning there's a chance one or both leaves the Phillies in free agency. As thing stand now, re-signing Schwarber — who clubbed a career-high 56 home runs in his contract year — seems more like than Suárez.
In the event one or both leaves, Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors has outlined what the Phillies, as a team that exceeded the luxury tax threshold, would receive:
"If a team exceeds the luxury tax line, their compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2026 draft. As an example, the Braves were tax-payors in 2024, so they got the 136th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Max Fried rejected Atlanta’s qualifying offer and signed with the Yankees."
Given the magnitude of the two players we're talking about here, getting a selection after the fourth round in the 2026 MLB Draft is a pretty underwhelming return. Granted, Ryan Howard was a fifth-round pick back in 2001, so you can find value in the draft after the first round. But it's obviously much less common.
This is one of the areas where the Phillies get penalized at for spending more than the overwhelming majority of teams. A year ago, the Baltimore Orioles lost both Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander in free agency after they each declined qualifying offers. In return, the Orioles — who not only don't go over the luxury tax, but also receive revenue-sharing dollars — received a pair of compensatory picks after the first round in the 2025 MLB Draft. Under the same circumstances, the Phillies would have received a couple picks after the fourth round.
All of this goes into the equation this offseason when trying to evaluate the futures of Schwarber and Suárez, two stalwarts during this era of Phillies baseball.
