This forecast map shows the probability of excessive rainfall from a nor’easter set to impact the East Coast. (Courtesy National Weather Service)
A strong nor’easter is “increasingly likely” to have significant impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast this weekend, bringing heavy rain and strong wind to the region.
“Things really start to go downhill on Saturday night as a coastal low approaches from the south,” the National Weather Service said in its area forecast discussion. “Rain is expected to continue overspreading the area, with around a 70-90% chance of rain region-wide. Winds begin to increase, especially over the water and along the immediate coastline with gusts getting near 40-50 mph by daybreak.”
The brunt of the storm will affect the region Sunday into Monday, when heavy rain and strong winds are expected, forecasters said.
Most of southeastern Pennsylvania has a roughly 50% chance of getting 2 inches or more rain before the storm leaves the area Monday, the weather service said Thursday.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected across the region, according to the weather service. Some areas could see 3-5 inches.
Heavy rain from the storm could trigger flooding, particularly in urban and poor drainage areas, the weather service said. The Philadelphia region is at a “slight risk” of excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, according to the weather service’s forecast map.
Wind will also be a factor, with maximum gusts expected to reach 30 mph.
The storm will have more of an impact on the coastal regions well south of Philadelphia, in New Jersey and Delaware, where the weather service has issued storm and high wind watches. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible along the coast, according to the weather service.
Moderate to major coastal flooding is also possible Sunday into Monday, and “preliminary guidance suggests this could be a significant to severe event,” the weather service said.
Temperatures over the next several days will continue to feel autumn-like, with daytime highs in the 60s.
Here is the extended forecast from the National Weather Service:
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Saturday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Light northeast wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday Night: Rain. Low around 56. East wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday: Rain. High near 64. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday Night: Rain. Low around 53. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Monday: Rain. High near 63. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday Night: chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 68.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
