Jul 19, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber (12) comes out of the dugout for a curtin call after his grand slam during the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, Kyle Schwarber might be the first major domino to fall this winter in MLB free agency.
In a Threads-exclusive report on Sunday, Passan singled out Schwarber as "the likeliest of the big free agents to sign first." He also said that he'd be surprised if Schwarber hasn't signed with a team by the time the Winter Meetings end, and he didn't rule out the possibility of Schwarber inking a contract before the meetings even begin.
Passan reiterated that the Phillies "remain the favorite" to land Schwarber, and he named the Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets and unspecified "others" as teams still vying for "the bellwether of the class."
First of all, Jeff, this is important information. Why are you only putting it on Threads?
Second of all, the most notable nugget here is that the ink on Schwarber's contract could dry before the Winter Meetings even start; for reference, they begin in Orlando on Sunday.
As compared to previous reports, that's a very accelerated timeline. MLB's Todd Zolecki reported on Nov. 25 that the Phillies and Schwarber weren't close to a deal, although the feeling remained that Schwarber would return. Just five days removed from that report, Passan indicated that Schwarber could be signed within a week's time.
Schwarber's market is definitely heating up. Within the past two weeks, he's been connected to a number of teams, including the Pittsburgh Pirates (!), the Baltimore Orioles, and the three teams Passan mentioned.
Passan re-confirmed that Schwarber is "going to get years, and he's going to get AAV." That's not a surprise. Predictions vary, but most sit in the ballpark of Schwarber receiving four (or more) years with a floor of $30 million per year.
Boston's and Cincinnati's interest in Schwarber has already been well-documented; Schwarber made a strong impression on the Red Sox during the back half of the 2021 season, and the Reds want to make a homecoming happen for the Middletown, Ohio native.
The Mets name-drop is interesting, but then again, they're notoriously big spenders, so they're checking in with every marquee free agent. Passan also connected them to Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Framber Valdez in Sunday's report.
That being said, in the same report, Passan also mentioned the Phillies in the running for Tucker and Bellinger. If Schwarber goes elsewhere, John Middleton will quickly redirect that money elsewhere.
