Apr 20, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Orion Kerkering (50) reacts after allowing a three-run home run during the eighth inning against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
There's no sugarcoating the fact that through 22 games, the Phillies bullpen has been a bit of a dumpster fire.
The collective ERA (5.81) is the second-worst in baseball. Every man in the bullpen has been touched up to some extent - some much more than others - and Orion Kerkering was the last to really feel the sting - hanging a slider to moted home run hitter Javier Sanoja (it was the first of his career) to watch a two-run lead disappear four outs away from a sweep.
Javier Sanoja - Miami Marlins (1)
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— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) April 20, 2025
It was the first time this season the Phillies blew a lead after seven innings, which is one way of looking at things positively, but on the flip side, it was also the 12th time in a span of 17 games the Phillies have played a game decided by only one or two runs - so the bullpen, specifically the high-leverage arms in the pen - are getting used a lot.
And it's taking a toll.
"We just got super lucky last year with how the starters went super well and super long," Kerkering said after the game. "Everyone was throwing complete games, it felt like, and we were just sitting there, lackadaisical almost - in a good way.
"This year, we're working a little bit harder than last year, but it's still a job we've got to do."
He's not wrong, and collectively, they're not doing it.
Kerkering has been fine, for the most part. As has Matt Strahm and a revived Jose Alvarado. But that's about it. Three guys out of eight. The rest have either been a disappointment (Jordan Romano, Joe Ross), or simply ineffective (Tanner Banks, Jose Ruiz, Carlos Hernandez).
Couple the amount of close games with the increased need of the bullpen and you find that the three guys who are trustworthy right now, have appeared in half of the Phillies games. That's a lot and a path that is mostly unsustainable in modern baseball.
Sure, relievers used to throw 100-plus innings back in the day, but they weren't throwing 101 MPH like Alvarado is. Nowadays, a sweet spot for a power reliever is between 65-70 innings in a season.
The Phillies have played just 13.5% of the season and Alvarado is on pace for 78 innings and Strahm for 75. It's too much too soon.
All that said, this is nothing new for the Phillies.
Look back at their runs in the past three seasons, all that resulted in playoff appearances, two with deeper runs.
Their bullpens through the first 22 games weren't exactly lighting the world on fire. In fact, the last two seasons were pretty much the same as this season.
In each season, the bullpen course corrected after those first 22 games. Some guys improved. Other guys didn't, and were replaced.
And it's that last part that is the most notable. In each of the previous three seasons, fewer than half the relievers who appeared out of the bullpen in the first 22 games of the season ended up pitching for the Phillies in October.
Even though that 2022 'pen got off to a decent start, only five of the 12 guys who pitched out of the pen in the first 22 games were used in October. That bullpen had a bunch of early innings taken down by Jeurys Familia, Corey Knebel, Damon Jones and James Norwood.
Phillies #31- Jeurys Familia, P (2022)
- 38 Games, 6.09 ERA, 33 K
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Even a young and wild Cristopher Sanchez pitched 8 1/3 innings of relief that April.
That October, the Phillies would use 10 different arms out of the bullpen, so five guys who didn't relieve for them in the first 22 games of the season.
In 2023, It was almost the same scenario. Of the 12 who pitched in the first 22 games, only five made an appearance in October. The only difference was only three new pitchers were added to that gang of five who made it all the way through the season.
And while 2024 was a short run in the postseason, only four of 11 pitchers who relieved in the first 22 games made it to October with three new arms arriving later in the season.
The one difference this year is the Phillies have stuck with the same 8-man bullpen for the entirety of the 22 games so far, rather than have guys shuttling up and down.
But, with the past being the prologue, barring injury one would assume Alvarado, Strahm and Kerkering will be there in October. But who from the remaining group will join them?
It's a long way off. Maybe the Phillies will convert some starters into postseason relievers like they did in 2022 when Ranger Suarez, Zach Eflin and Noah Sydergaard all relieved in October.
It might make sense as the Phillies do have seemingly more depth at the starting pitcher level than they do at the reliever level.
Or maybe President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski will go out and acquire some relief arms before the trade deadline, to bolster the pen.
Either way, what you are seeing out of the bullpen now is certainly not indicative of what you will see five months from now as the season is wrapping up.
That said, getting to that point does matter, and you can't drain the energy of the guys you are hoping will be a big part of it by overusing them at the start of the season.
So, maybe doing something to shake it up out there wouldn't be a bad idea in the short term, if for nothing else to put some relief innings on some other arms other than the big three.
